Phosphorus is an essential but often overlooked resource, which is vital for life on Earth and is extracted from phosphate rock for use in crop fertilisers, livestock feeds and food additives. A major new report by scientists warns that global mismanagement of this finite nutrient is causing twin crises, brought into sharp focus with fertiliser prices skyrocketing in recent months.

Global food security remains threatened as many farmers struggle to afford sufficient phosphorus fertiliser for their crops. Meanwhile, overuse of fertilisers and sewage pollution pump millions of tonnes of phosphorus into lakes and rivers each year, damaging biodiversity and affecting water quality.

The Our Phosphorus Future report is the most comprehensive global analysis of the challenges and possible

solutions to the phosphorus crisis to date. It has been written by a team of 40 international experts from 17 countries led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) and the University of Edinburgh, and is supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

The report calls on governments across the world to adopt a ’50, 50, 50′ goal: a 50 per cent reduction in global pollution of phosphorus and a 50 per cent increase in recycling of the nutrient by the year 2050.

Recommendations in Our Phosphorus Future include:
•    integrating livestock and crop production so phosphorus in animal manure is applied to crops, reducing the demand for chemical fertilisers;
•    moving towards more sustainable diets, which would reduce the amount of phosphorus needed to grow animal feed;
•    reducing global food waste, meaning less demand for crops and animal products, and therefore phosphorus (a recent UNEP report estimated global food waste from households, retail establishments and the food service industry totals 931 million tonnes each year);
•    improving wastewater treatment to remove phosphorus from sewage, so it can be reused and does not enter lakes and rivers.

Only four countries* control around 70 per cent of the annual global production of phosphate rock from which phosphorus is extracted, leaving the market exposed to massive fluctuations in costs and supply due to political disputes, trade wars and escalating fuel prices. Since 2020, for example, the prices of both phosphate rock and fertiliser have increased by around 400 per cent, and continue to rise. This instability exacerbates the impacts of other global factors influencing fertiliser costs, such as the effect of the war in Ukraine on the cost of natural gas.

Professor Bryan Spears of UKCEH, one of the lead authors of the Our Phosphorus Future report, says: “Many countries are highly dependent on imported phosphorus fertiliser for food production, leaving them exposed to fertiliser price fluctuations. More efficient use of phosphorus in agriculture and increased recycling, for example from wastewater, can increase resilience in the food system while reducing pollution of lakes and rivers that are biodiversity hotspots and important for drinking water supply.”

The report’s authors estimate adopting the ’50, 50, 50′ goal would create a food system that would provide enough phosphorus to sustain over four times the current global population, save farmers nearly US $20 billion in annual phosphorus fertiliser costs and avoid a projected yearly clean-up bill of over US $300 billion to remove phosphorus from polluted water courses. 

Phosphorus pollution in lakes, rivers, and coasts accelerates the growth of algal blooms which produce toxins that are harmful to animals and humans who come into contact with or consume contaminated water. The cost of responding to water-based phosphorus pollution in the UK alone is estimated at £170 million per year. 

The experts hope their report will raise awareness of the need for sustainable phosphorus management informing collaborations between scientists, governments, farmers and industries.

Dr Will Brownlie, a University of Edinburgh freshwater scientist who coordinated the Our Phosphorus Future report, says: “So far, there has been a lack of intergovernmental action. By providing the scientific evidence that shows threats posed by unsustainable use of phosphorus, as well as putting forward solutions, we hope our report will catalyse change towards sustainable management of this essential nutrient.”

Isabelle Vanderbeck of the United Nations Environment Programme, a co-author of the report, adds: “UNEP recognises the complexity of the nutrient challenge and the potential for economic benefits of improving phosphorus sustainability. Governments should take decisive actions to avoid significant environmental and societal harm due to phosphorus mismanagement.”  

For the full Our Phosphorus Future report and videos summarising each chapter, see www.opfglobal.com

Notes to Editors

•    UK food security is dependent on reliable supplies of phosphorus to fertilise agricultural soils and for use in animal feeds. The country imports around 175,000 tonnes a year but 57 per cent of this is wasted – enough phosphorus to grow food for the entire population of London.
•    More than 26,000 tonnes of phosphorus is lost to UK waters each year. Some 75 per cent of lakes and 54 per cent of rivers in England failed the EU Water Framework Directive phosphorus standards for good ecological status (Environment Agency, 2019).
•    Five countries control 85 per cent of the world’s phosphate rock reserves: Morocco (70%), China (5%), Egypt (4%) Algeria (3%), and Syria (3%). *In terms of the annual supply of phosphate rock, just four countries were responsible for 72 per cent of global production in 2021: China (39%), Morocco (17%), the US (10%), and Russia (6%) (Jasinski et al, 2022).

Preparation of the Our Phosphorus Future report was supported by funding from the Natural Environment Research Council’s International Opportunities Fund (award NE/P008798/1), the United Nations Environment Programme, the Global Environment Facility through the International Nitrogen Management System (GEF project: 5400), and the European Sustainable Phosphorus Platform.

Media enquiries
For photos and infographics from the report, as well as interviews and more information, please contact Simon Williams, Media Relations Officer at UKCEH, via simwil@ceh.ac.uk or +44 (0)7920 295384. 

About the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology is a centre for excellence in environmental science across water, land and air. Our 500 scientists work to understand the environment, how it sustains life and the human impact on it – so that together, people and nature can prosper. 
We have a long history of investigating, monitoring and modelling environmental change, and our science makes a positive difference in the world.
We seek to understand the complex interactions that affect the availability and quality of water resources now and into the future, from local to global scales.
The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology is a strategic delivery partner for the Natural Environment Research Council, part of UK Research and Innovation.
www.ceh.ac.uk / Twitter: @UK_CEH / LinkedIn: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

About the University of Edinburgh’s School of GeoSciences
We are one of the largest and most successful interdisciplinary groupings of geographers and geoscientists in the UK, with a community of staff, students and researchers passionately committed to understanding the impact of climate on the Earth’s systems, the environment and ecosystems, as well as the social, economic, cultural and political implications for society.
Through our staff and students’ many achievements, we present cutting-edge research, inspirational teaching and innovative thinking, attracting some of the greatest minds from around the globe. Our work is continuously expanding our knowledge of our planet and the lives of ordinary people. Our research and teaching span: physical sciences, social sciences and humanities.
We work closely with other universities, charities, the third sector, communities and governments, and business and industry to respond to global and social challenges and do justice to future generations.
www.ed.ac.uk/geosciences / @GeosciencesEd